April 2016 – The Fossil Dilemma of Rotterdam. In the coming years, fossil fuels will still be important for the Netherlands. The harbour of Rotterdam plays an important part in that dependency, as it is the largest and most competitive fossil cluster in Northwest Europe. Rotterdam therefore embraces a strategy of green ánd fossil development, a strategy that appears prudent and robust. However, the ‘lock-in’ with fossil fuels will not be broken in this way, as fossil fuel investments will continue. Question therefore is how long the ‘and-and’ option, fossils and greening, will hold. Is Rotterdam in this way prepared for a possible accelaration of greening of the energy sector, that might lead much earlier than anticipated to a post-fossil future?
Project timespan: September 2015 – March 2016
Download: Het fossiele dilemma van Rotterdam
November, 11, 2015 – The book ‘Energie voor groene welvaart’ (‘Energy for green welfare’) is now available from Aeneas Publishers. The book discusses three trends in the global energy sector that currently take place at the same time: a sharp rise in the share of renewable energy, continuing investments in fossil fuels and a strongly increasing energy demand in developing countries. It argues that, despite optimism by some about the proximity of a ‘green tipping point’ for the energy sector, it is more likely that these three trends will go on in the future if no drastic change of current policies worldwide takes place. More specifically, for a successful global energy transition policies need to 1) focus on a broad set of global environmental goals rather than on climate change alone in order to prevent trade-offs between these goals, 2) try to find ways to come to an agreement with global fossil interests rather than to trust in markets alone to bring about greening of the energy sector, 3) reduce the welfare gap between industrialised and developing countries rather than to see greening as a way to build up competitive advantages for industrialised countries, and 4) discuss new contents and ways of measuring ‘green welfare’, beyond BNP and material consumerism.
For more information and ordering the book at the site of Aeneas media: Energie voor groene welvaart
Client: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. www.pbl.nl
Project timespan: May – December 2015
Read also the book reviews:
“Kort voor de jaarwisseling, en slechts twee weken na het
Klimaatverdrag van Parijs, kondigde Bangladesh de ambitieuze
bouw van nieuwe kolencentrales aan. Niemand wil Bangladesh
de kans op economische ontwikkeling ontzeggen, maar de
paradox van de energievoorziening ligt hier glashelder op tafel.
Over dat soort paradoxen gaat ‘Energie voor Groene Welvaart’.”
Albert Faber – Loskomen van vastgeroeste beelden, Milieu, March 2016
“Hoe moet het verder met de mondiale energievoorziening? En hoe bereiken we onze ambitie om – op termijn – groene welvaart op wereldschaal werkelijkheid te laten worden? Met het stellen van deze vragen geeft auteur Stephan Slingerland zijn visitekaartje af”
Paul Hofhuis – Groene welvaart op wereldschaal als einddoel, Internationale Spectator, May 2016
26 October, 2015 – Together with TNO and HCSS, Trinomics is organising in 2015 meetings on the future of energy in the Netherlands. A first topic concerned the idea of the Dutch ‘Gas Roundabout’, that should secure income for the Dutch state from gas trade as a compensation for declining income from the depleting Groningen field. It is argued in this paper, that a more comprehensive fossil fuels strategy is needed in the Netherlands, including a strategy that includes build up, but also an exitstrategy for fossils. From the press release:
‘In een vandaag verschenen rapport pleiten TNO, HCSS en Trinomics voor een heldere overheidsvisie op de toekomst van aardgas in ons land. Een dergelijke visie geeft inhoud aan de slogan ‘gas als transitiebrandstof’. Immers, enkel wanneer er een duidelijke einddatum is voor de winning van aardgas in Nederland, de Gasrotonde een op– en afbouwstrategie kent, en helder is dat de resterende gasbaten daadwerkelijk worden besteed aan vergroening kan energietransitie op gedegen en verantwoorde wijze kracht bij worden gezet.’
Project timespan: January – December 2015
Download: Policy briefing paper Gasrotonde
January 2015 – Energy, Climate and Resources. When will the Breakthrough Arrive? In this article, which I wrote as a member of the editorial board of the Dutch magazine for international relations ‘Internationale Spectator’, I discuss the international signs for breakthroughs towards a more sustainable situation in the fields of energy, climate and resources. I conclude that, despite many weak and medium signals of changes, a tipping point towards sustainable in neither of the three areas is in sight.
Client: Internationale Spectator
Project timespan: December 2014 – January 2015
Download: Spectatorartikel Trendbreuk
April 2015 – This project aimed to determine the needs for flexibility/balancing in the Dutch electricity system with an increasing share of renewables. In a next step, the study assessed the role of different services and products that can provide the required flexibility to the energy system based on future needs, like for instance storage and smart reactive power absorption and generation. It was concluded that capacity mechanisms in the Dutch electricity market, unlike in other European countries, for the moment do not seem necessary. Triple E Consulting, Rotterdam.
Project timespan: February 2014 – April 2015
Download: Trinomics Report Balance of Power
February 2015 – Since 2013, the European Union and the United States negotiate a controversial ‘Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership’ (TTIP). The agreement aims at economic growth and the creation of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. Main topics include the removal of tariff and non-tariff measures such as technical and safety standards, license obligations, lengthy customs procedures, restrictions on access to public tenders and trade restrictions on products and services in a variety of fields. The study informs Members of the European Parliament’s ITRE Committee about key expected impacts of TTIP on the EU energy markets and manufacturing industries and main uncertainties. Triple E Consulting, Rotterdam.
Client: European Parliament, ITRE Committee
Project timespan: April 2014 – February 2015
Download: Trinomics TTIP Study on the website of the European Parliament
December 2014 – In this project, an overview of EU energy governance was prepared for the ITRE Committee (Industry, Research and Energy) of the European Parliament. The document gives an insight into the institutions, policies, issues and policy interactions in practice around the three EU energy policy pillars: climate change, competitiveness and security of supply. It also gives recommendations regarding main future energy governance issues that need to be taken into account by the European Parliament. These concern improved and more integrated reporting around energy issues, recommended key contacts and discussions for the EP to be organised with relevant energy stakeholders, and streamlining of EU energy innovation research and development. Triple E Consulting, Rotterdam
Client: European Parliament, ITRE Committee
Project timespan: October 2014 – December 2014
Download: Trinomics Report EU Energy Governance
September 2014 – Topsector Energy Programme Part 2 – Themes and Governance Structure. In the ‘Topsector Energie’ Programme of Dutch Government, public research institutions and private companies are cooperating in energy innovation. The programme is co-funded by government and the participating private partners. So far, more than 130 projects have been initiated which are clustered into 7 innovation areas or ‘Top Knowledge Institutes’ (TKIs). In the evaluation it was examined to what extent claimed interim results of the TSE as a whole and the TKIs in particular can be substantiated. It was also examined to what extent the TSE approach still fits with recent external energy developments on a global, European and Dutch level, and to what extent it fits with the overall economic comparative advantages of the Netherlands. Main findings were that projects are generally in line with the competitive strengths of the Netherlands. However, they lack coordination – which could be provided by a clear overarching vision on the role of energy innovation in the overall transition of the Netherlands towards a post-domestic-gas society. Also, a clearer division between innovation projects that can deliver CO2 reduction and employment on the short term on one hand and more fundamental innovation projects for the longer term could help to give more clarity to participants and the outside world in what the Topsector actually stands for. Triple E Consulting and CE Delft, Rotterdam/Delft
Client: Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs EZ
Project timespan: May – September 2015
Download: CE Delft & Trinomics Report Evaluatie Topsector Energie
June 2014 – The Ryad World Energy Treaty of 2025. This essay is a contribution to the 40-Year Jubileum Essay Collection ‘De Doorbraak van Duurzaam’ (The Breakthrough of Sustainable Energy) of the Dutch Thinktank Bezinningsgroep Energiebeleid. It discusses an the ingredients of an imaginary world energy treaty in 2025 in which all countries worldwide decide on a global energy transition towards a sustainable energy sector.
Client: Bezinningsgroep Energiebeleid
Project timespan: April – June 2014
Download: Jubileumbundel Bezinningsgroep Energie
April 2014 – In the Near Future it is Over with Gas in the Netherlands. This article for the Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad discusses the nearing end of the Dutch gas reserves in relation to the earthquakes in Groningen, where the reserves are situated. It sees the earthquakes as an opportunity to accelerate the transition to a green energy sector in the Netherlands.
Client: NRC Handelsblad, 16 April 2014
Project timespan: April 2014
Download: NRC Handelsblad Artikel Gas